Today is “Children’s Day”. The declining birthrate shows no signs of stopping. As of April 1 this year, the number of children (under 15 years old) is 14.01 million, a decrease of 336,000 from the previous year, with an annual decrease rate of 2.3%. Based on these figures, Professor Yoshida of Tohoku University estimates that as of May 5, Children’s Day, there are 13,979,189 children. According to the Child Population Clock, if the current rate of decrease continues, it is predicted that there will be only one person left on January 5, 2720, 696 years from now. Setting aside the issue 696 years from now, the declining birthrate is an urgent issue. Various backgrounds and measures for the declining birthrate are being discussed, but the fundamental problem is “housing”. Ensuring safe childbirth, raising children, and preserving offspring are essential not only for humanity but also for all animals, and the basic is “nest building”. Taking condominiums as an example of human nests, the average price per unit of newly built condominiums nationwide in 2023, announced by the Real Estate Economic Institute on April 28 last month, was 59.11 million yen, an increase of 5.911 million yen from the previous year. Let’s make a repayment plan using Haseko’s repayment simulation. Assuming a loan interest rate of over 20 years = 3%, repayment period = 35 years, and no bonus repayment (equal installment), the result is astonishing: monthly repayment amount = 227,485 yen, total repayment amount = 95,543,678 yen. According to the National Tax Agency’s “FY2022 Private Sector Salary Survey”, the average annual income of Japanese people is about 4.58 million yen, so it’s about 38 yen per month. This is insufficient even for stork nest building.

今日は「こどもの日」。少子化傾向は止まるところを知りません。今年４月１日時点の子ども（15歳未満）は前年比33.６万人減の1401万人で、１年間の減少率は2.３%だそうです。その数字を基に、東北大の吉田教授は、こどもの日の５月５日時点では1397万9189人と推計。そして子ども人口時計は、このままの減少ペースが続けば、「696年後の2720年１月５日」に１人になると予測しています。696年後のことはともかくとして、少子化問題は喫緊の課題です。出生数が減少している背景や対策はいろいろと語られていますが、根本問題は「住まい」です。無事に子供を産み、育て、種を保存していくのに欠かせないのは、人類を含めた動物全体に言えることですが、基本は「巣作り」です。人間の巣をマンションに例にとります。不動産経済研究所が先月28日発表した2023年の全国新築マンションの１戸あたりの平均価格は前年より5911万円です。これを長谷工の返済額シュミレーションで返済プランを立てます。20年越えのローン金利＝3%、返済年数＝35年、ボーナス返済分なし(均等割)とします。結果はなんと、月額返済額＝227,485円、返済総額＝95,543,678円です。国税庁「令和4年分 民間給与実態統計調査」によると、日本人の平均年収は約458万円ですから、月額に直して約38円。これではコウノトリの巣作りにも及びません。